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Second dart forced farther out than the first

Question

Nicole throws two darts at a circular board of radius RR. The distance R1R_1 of her first dart from the centre is uniformly distributed on (0,R)(0,R). Her second dart always lands farther from the centre than the first, and given R1R_1 it is uniformly distributed (by area) over the part of the board at distance greater than R1R_1. The probability that the second dart is at distance at least R2\tfrac R2 from the centre can be written as a+ln⁡bc\dfrac{a+\ln b}{c} in lowest terms with positive integers a,b,ca,b,c. Find a+b+ca+b+c.

Short answer

3939. If R1>R2R_1>\tfrac R2 the event is certain. If R1=r<R2R_1=r<\tfrac R2, the area ratio gives 3/41−(r/R)2\tfrac{3/4}{1-(r/R)^2}. Averaging over rr yields 12+34∫01/2du1−u2=12+38ln⁡3=4+ln⁡278\tfrac12+\tfrac34\int_0^{1/2}\tfrac{du}{1-u^2}=\tfrac12+\tfrac38\ln3=\tfrac{4+\ln 27}{8}, so a+b+c=4+27+8=39a+b+c=4+27+8=39.

Adapted from QuantQuestions.io; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

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