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Rolls of a five-sided die to reach a total of five

Question

A fair die with faces 1,2,3,4,51,2,3,4,5 is rolled again and again until the running total is 55 or more. What is the expected number of rolls?

Short answer

1296/6251296/625. For an nn-sided die and target nn, the chance that kk rolls have not yet reached nn is (n−1k)/nk\binom{n-1}{k}/n^k (compositions of a number below nn into kk parts). Summing over k≥0k\ge0 gives E=(1+1n)n−1E=\left(1+\tfrac1n\right)^{n-1}, which is (6/5)4(6/5)^4 for n=5n=5.

Adapted from QuantQuestions.io; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

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