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Rock paper scissors against a player who never throws rock

Question

You play repeated rounds of rock-paper-scissors against someone who is not allowed to play rock. A win pays you $1, a loss costs you $1, and a tie pays nothing. If both sides play optimally, what is your expected gain per round?

Short answer

13\tfrac13 dollar. Paper is dominated for you, so mix rock (prob. aa) and scissors; the opponent mixes paper (prob. bb) and scissors. Your payoff is a+b−3aba+b-3ab. Choosing a=13a=\tfrac13 makes it 13\tfrac13 whatever bb is, and the opponent's b=13b=\tfrac13 caps it at 13\tfrac13, so the game's value is 13\tfrac13.

Adapted from QuantQuestions.io; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

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