Skip to content

Reroll for the sum but pay if it reaches seven

Question

Roll a fair six-sided die. You may stop and collect the number shown in dollars. Or you may roll a second time: if the two rolls total 77 or more, you must pay out an amount equal to your first roll; if the total is 66 or less, you collect the total in dollars. With optimal decisions, what is your expected payout?

Short answer

47/1247/12 dollars. Rolling again after a 11 is worth 196>1\tfrac{19}{6}>1 and after a 22 is worth 73>2\tfrac73>2, but after a 33 it is worth only 11, and it gets worse for higher rolls. So reroll only on 11 or 22: 16(196+73+3+4+5+6)=4712\tfrac16\left(\tfrac{19}{6}+\tfrac{7}{3}+3+4+5+6\right)=\tfrac{47}{12}.

Adapted from QuantQuestions.io; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

See the hint and the full worked solution in the question bank (free account).

Open the worked solution

Lessons behind this question

Start with a free lesson: Expectation, Variance and Covariance is part of a free topic. Create a free account, no card needed, to read it in full with worked solutions.

Read it free