Red cherry after moving one between bowls
Question
Bowl holds red and purple cherries; bowl holds red and purple. Jenny moves one cherry chosen at random from into , and then eats a cherry chosen at random from . What is the probability that the cherry she eats is red?
Short answer
. Bowl now has cherries, one of which came from . The eaten cherry is the transferred one with probability (red with chance ) and an original cherry otherwise (red with chance ): .
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Open the worked solutionLessons behind this question
- Sample Spaces, Events, and the Probability Axioms
- Conditional Probability, Total Probability, and Bayes' Rule
- Worked Examples — Probability Trees, Monty Hall, and Bayesian Updating
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