Recovering a coin bias from a posterior odds ratio
Question
Two biased coins have heads probabilities and , both strictly between and , with and . You pick one of the two coins at random (each with probability ) and toss it twice, getting heads both times. Given this, coin 2 is now four times as likely as coin 1 to be the one you picked. Find .
Short answer
. With equal priors the posterior odds equal the likelihood ratio, so . Taking the positive root, , so .
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Open the worked solutionLessons behind this question
- Conditional Probability, Total Probability, and Bayes' Rule
- Worked Examples — Probability Trees, Monty Hall, and Bayesian Updating
- Sample Spaces, Events, and the Probability Axioms
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