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Re-tossing tails only in pairs

Question

You toss four fair coins together. After seeing the result you may re-toss any two coins that currently show tails (two at a time; a lone tail cannot be re-tossed by itself), and you may repeat this as long as at least two tails are showing. Following the rule of re-tossing a pair of tails whenever you can, what is the expected total number of individual coin tosses, counting the initial four, until no further move is possible?

Short answer

17627\tfrac{176}{27}. Let eke_k be the expected extra tosses with kk heads showing; e3=e4=0e_3=e_4=0. Each pair re-toss costs 2 and adds 0, 1 or 2 heads with probabilities 14,12,14\tfrac14,\tfrac12,\tfrac14, giving e2=83e_2=\tfrac83, e1=409e_1=\tfrac{40}{9}, e0=17627e_0=\tfrac{176}{27}. Averaging over the binomial first toss, 4+116e0+416e1+616e2=176274+\tfrac{1}{16}e_0+\tfrac{4}{16}e_1+\tfrac{6}{16}e_2=\tfrac{176}{27}.

Adapted from QuantQuestions.io; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

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