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Re-flipping tails only in pairs with four coins

Question

Four fair coins are tossed together. Afterwards, as long as at least two coins show tails, you may pick two tails-up coins and toss that pair again; a single coin can never be re-tossed by itself. You keep doing this until fewer than two tails remain. What is the expected number of heads at the end?

Short answer

88/2788/27. Condition on the first toss. With 33 or 44 heads nothing changes. With two tails you re-toss until the pair is not TTTT, ending at 33 or 44 heads with odds 2:12:1, worth 103\tfrac{10}{3}. Working the same recursion back gives 299\tfrac{29}{9} from one head and 8827\tfrac{88}{27} from none, and weighting by Binom(4,12)\text{Binom}(4,\tfrac12) gives 8827\tfrac{88}{27}.

Adapted from QuantQuestions.io; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

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