Re-flipping tails only in pairs with four coins
Question
Four fair coins are tossed together. Afterwards, as long as at least two coins show tails, you may pick two tails-up coins and toss that pair again; a single coin can never be re-tossed by itself. You keep doing this until fewer than two tails remain. What is the expected number of heads at the end?
Short answer
. Condition on the first toss. With or heads nothing changes. With two tails you re-toss until the pair is not , ending at or heads with odds , worth . Working the same recursion back gives from one head and from none, and weighting by gives .
Adapted from QuantQuestions.io; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.
See the hint and the full worked solution in the question bank (free account).
Open the worked solutionLessons behind this question
- Counting and Combinatorics
- Expectation, Mean, and Variance
- Conditional Expectation and Variance Revisited
Start with a free lesson: Expectation, Variance and Covariance is part of a free topic. Create a free account, no card needed, to read it in full with worked solutions.
Read it free