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Ratio of a 3-5-4-4 split to an even split

Question

Sixteen distinguishable cherries are each dropped independently and uniformly into one of 44 distinguishable bowls. Let aa be the probability that the bowl counts are 33, 55, 44, 44 in some arrangement (one bowl with 33, one with 55, two with 44), and let bb be the probability that every bowl gets exactly 44. Find a/ba/b.

Short answer

48/548/5. For a fixed assignment of counts to bowls the probability is a multinomial coefficient over 4164^{16}. The 3,5,4,43,5,4,4 pattern can be placed on the bowls in 4!/2!=124!/2!=12 ways, so a/b=12⋅4! 4!3! 5!=12⋅45=485a/b=12\cdot\tfrac{4!\,4!}{3!\,5!}=12\cdot\tfrac45=\tfrac{48}{5}.

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