Random split of 50 nuggets among four students
Question
A teacher buys chicken nuggets for four students. Three of them (Stan, Kyle, Kenny) each need at least nuggets to be happy, and the fourth (Eric) needs at least . The teacher divides the nuggets into four piles, one per student, with every split (every ordered quadruple of non-negative counts summing to ) equally likely. You learn that each student received at least nuggets. The conditional probability that all four are happy can be written as . What is the minimum possible value of ?
Short answer
. Conditioning on at least each leaves to distribute freely: splits. Meeting all demands leaves free: splits. So the probability is , and choosing (not or ) gives .
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Open the worked solutionLessons behind this question
- Counting and Combinatorics
- Conditional Probability, Total Probability, and Bayes' Rule
- Worked Examples — Probability Trees, Monty Hall, and Bayesian Updating
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