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Random split of 50 nuggets among four students

Question

A teacher buys 5050 chicken nuggets for four students. Three of them (Stan, Kyle, Kenny) each need at least 66 nuggets to be happy, and the fourth (Eric) needs at least 1818. The teacher divides the nuggets into four piles, one per student, with every split (every ordered quadruple of non-negative counts summing to 5050) equally likely. You learn that each student received at least 55 nuggets. The conditional probability that all four are happy can be written as (ab)/(cd)\dbinom{a}{b}\Big/\dbinom{c}{d}. What is the minimum possible value of a+2b+c+2da+2b+c+2d?

Short answer

6262. Conditioning on at least 55 each leaves 3030 to distribute freely: (333)\binom{33}{3} splits. Meeting all demands leaves 50−36=1450-36=14 free: (173)\binom{17}{3} splits. So the probability is (173)/(333)\binom{17}{3}/\binom{33}{3}, and choosing b=d=3b=d=3 (not 1414 or 3030) gives 17+6+33+6=6217+6+33+6=62.

Adapted from QuantQuestions.io; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

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