Skip to content

Predicting heads after a coin passes two flips

Question

A hat holds three coins: one shows heads with probability 13\tfrac13, one with probability 23\tfrac23, and one has heads on both sides. A coin is picked at random and tossed twice, giving heads both times. That same coin is now tossed 12 further times. What is the expected number of heads in those 12 tosses?

Short answer

72/772/7. Bayes with likelihoods 19,49,1\tfrac19,\tfrac49,1 gives posterior weights 114,414,914\tfrac1{14},\tfrac4{14},\tfrac9{14}. The posterior mean heads probability is 114(13+83+9)=67\tfrac{1}{14}\left(\tfrac13+\tfrac83+9\right)=\tfrac67, so 12 tosses yield 727\tfrac{72}{7} heads on average.

Adapted from OpenQuant; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

See the hint and the full worked solution in the question bank (free account).

Open the worked solution

Lessons behind this question

Start with a free lesson: Probability Fundamentals is part of a free topic. Create a free account, no card needed, to read it in full with worked solutions.

Read it free