Posterior mean of a coin with a Beta(10,10) prior
Question
The heads probability of a coin is unknown and is given the prior . The coin is then tossed times and lands heads times. What is the posterior mean of given these tosses?
Short answer
. The Beta prior is conjugate to binomial data: the posterior is , whose mean is .
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Open the worked solutionLessons behind this question
- Continuous Random Variables and Probability Density Functions
- Conditional Probability, Total Probability, and Bayes' Rule
- Worked Examples — Probability Trees, Monty Hall, and Bayesian Updating
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