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Posterior mean of a coin with a Beta(10,10) prior

Question

The heads probability PP of a coin is unknown and is given the prior P∼Beta(10,10)P\sim\text{Beta}(10,10). The coin is then tossed 8080 times and lands heads 5050 times. What is the posterior mean of PP given these tosses?

Short answer

35\tfrac35. The Beta prior is conjugate to binomial data: the posterior is Beta(10+50, 10+30)=Beta(60,40)\text{Beta}(10+50,\,10+30)=\text{Beta}(60,40), whose mean is 60100=35\tfrac{60}{100}=\tfrac35.

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