Skip to content

Players ranked first and second meeting in the final

Question

A knockout chess tournament has 2n2^n players with distinct strengths, and the stronger player always wins a game. The draw is completely random. What is the probability that the two strongest players face each other in the final round?

Short answer

2n−1/(2n−1)2^{n-1}/(2^n-1). The top two can only lose to each other, so they meet in the final if and only if they are drawn into different halves. Fixing the top player's position, the second player lands in the other half in 2n−12^{n-1} of the 2n−12^n-1 remaining slots.

Adapted from Zhou, A Practical Guide to Quantitative Finance Interviews, sec. 4.2 Combinatorial Analysis, 'Chess tournament', p.67; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

See the hint and the full worked solution in the question bank (free account).

Open the worked solution

Lessons behind this question

Start with a free lesson: Probability Fundamentals is part of a free topic. Create a free account, no card needed, to read it in full with worked solutions.

Read it free