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Paying a dollar to reflip four coins

Question

Four fair coins are tossed and you are paid $1 for each head. After seeing the result you may, once, pay $1 to toss all four coins again, in which case the second toss determines your payout. Your rule is to retoss exactly when the first toss shows 00 or 11 heads. What is the expected value of the game under this rule?

Short answer

3316\tfrac{33}{16} dollars. Keeping 2, 3 or 4 heads contributes 2⋅6+3⋅4+4⋅116=2816\tfrac{2\cdot6+3\cdot4+4\cdot1}{16}=\tfrac{28}{16}. With probability 516\tfrac5{16} you retoss, earning an expected 22 minus the $1 fee, adding 516\tfrac5{16}. Total: 3316\tfrac{33}{16}.

Adapted from QuantQuestions.io; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

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