Pay-per-box hunt for a hidden prize
Question
A prize of is hidden in one of four closed boxes, each equally likely. You may open boxes one at a time, paying for each box you open, and you may stop whenever you wish; you keep the prize if you find it. What value of makes this a fair game?
Short answer
. Opening until you find the prize takes boxes on average, so gives . Backward induction confirms stopping early never helps at this price: with one, two, three and four boxes left the game is worth , , and .
Adapted from Joshi, Denson & Downes, Quant Job Interview Questions and Answers, Q3.3, p.80; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.
See the hint and the full worked solution in the question bank (free account).
Open the worked solutionLessons behind this question
- Expectation, Mean, and Variance
- Conditional Expectation and Variance Revisited
- Sample Spaces, Events, and the Probability Axioms
Start with a free lesson: Expectation, Variance and Covariance is part of a free topic. Create a free account, no card needed, to read it in full with worked solutions.
Read it free