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Pay-per-box hunt for a hidden prize

Question

A prize of 100100 is hidden in one of four closed boxes, each equally likely. You may open boxes one at a time, paying XX for each box you open, and you may stop whenever you wish; you keep the prize if you find it. What value of XX makes this a fair game?

Short answer

X=40X=40. Opening until you find the prize takes 1+2+3+44=2.5\tfrac{1+2+3+4}{4}=2.5 boxes on average, so 100−2.5X=0100-2.5X=0 gives X=40X=40. Backward induction confirms stopping early never helps at this price: with one, two, three and four boxes left the game is worth 6060, 4040, 2020 and 00.

Adapted from Joshi, Denson & Downes, Quant Job Interview Questions and Answers, Q3.3, p.80; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

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