Order of chess opponents to win two in a row
Question
Alice will play three chess games, alternating between two opponents, Bob and Carl, and she claims a prize if she wins at least two games in succession. She may choose the order Bob–Carl–Bob (option 1) or Carl–Bob–Carl (option 2). Carl is the stronger player. Which option gives her the better chance of the prize? Answer or .
Short answer
Option 2. With win probabilities against Bob and against Carl, she needs to win the middle game and at least one of the outer games. Option 1 gives ; option 2 gives , which is larger. Facing the stronger player twice is better because the middle game against the weaker one is the must-win.
Adapted from QuantQuestions.io; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.
See the hint and the full worked solution in the question bank (free account).
Open the worked solutionLessons behind this question
- Conditional Probability, Total Probability, and Bayes' Rule
- Worked Examples — Probability Trees, Monty Hall, and Bayesian Updating
- Sample Spaces, Events, and the Probability Axioms
Start with a free lesson: Probability Fundamentals is part of a free topic. Create a free account, no card needed, to read it in full with worked solutions.
Read it free