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Optimal stake in a token pool game

Question

Two players, XX and YY, each own 100100 tokens. Simultaneously and in secret, each puts between 11 and 100100 of their tokens into a common pot; say XX puts in xx and YY puts in yy. One token is then drawn uniformly from the pot. If it is one of XX's, YY pays XX an amount 100−x100-x; if it is one of YY's, XX pays YY an amount 100−y100-y. Both play optimally to maximise their own expected payoff. How many tokens should XX put in?

Short answer

5050. XX's expected gain is x(100−x)−y(100−y)x+y=(x−y)(100−x−y)x+y\dfrac{x(100-x)-y(100-y)}{x+y}=\dfrac{(x-y)(100-x-y)}{x+y}. Against y=50y=50 this is −(x−50)2x+50≤0-\tfrac{(x-50)^2}{x+50}\le0, maximised at x=50x=50; by symmetry 5050 is also YY's best reply, so (50,50)(50,50) is the equilibrium and the game is fair.

Adapted from QuantQuestions.io; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

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