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Most likely position of the fifth king in a shoe

Question

A shoe of 1010 shuffled standard decks has 520520 cards, 4040 of which are kings. Cards are turned over one by one from the top, and the game stops when the fifth king appears. You win if your guess for the total number of cards turned (counting that fifth king) is the right one. Which number gives you the highest chance of being exactly right? (This is the mode, not the mean.)

Short answer

5454. The fifth king is at position kk with probability proportional to (k−14)(520−k35)\binom{k-1}{4}\binom{520-k}{35}. The ratio of consecutive terms exceeds 11 exactly when k(485−k)>(k−4)(520−k)k(485-k)>(k-4)(520-k), i.e. k<2080/39≈53.3k<2080/39\approx53.3, so the probabilities rise up to k=54k=54 and fall afterwards.

Adapted from QuantQuestions.io; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

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