Matching dice bet and a double-even reroll game
Question
(a) You and an opponent each roll two dice, four dice in all. If any two of the four dice show the same number you gain $1; if all four differ you lose $1. Is this bet worth taking?
(b) You roll one die. An even result pays dollars and an odd result pays dollars. You may discard your first roll once and roll again, accepting the second outcome. With optimal play, what are your expected winnings?
Short answer
(a) Yes — EV is dollar; (b) $7. (a) All four dice differ with probability , so the EV is . (b) Payouts are with mean 5.5, so keep only 8 or 12 and reroll otherwise: .
Adapted from OpenQuant; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.
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Open the worked solutionLessons behind this question
- Sample Spaces, Events, and the Probability Axioms
- Counting and Combinatorics
- Expectation, Mean, and Variance
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