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Matching dice bet and a double-even reroll game

Question

(a) You and an opponent each roll two dice, four dice in all. If any two of the four dice show the same number you gain $1; if all four differ you lose $1. Is this bet worth taking?

(b) You roll one die. An even result kk pays 2k2k dollars and an odd result kk pays kk dollars. You may discard your first roll once and roll again, accepting the second outcome. With optimal play, what are your expected winnings?

Short answer

(a) Yes — EV is +49+\tfrac49 dollar; (b) $7. (a) All four dice differ with probability 6⋅5⋅4⋅364=518\tfrac{6\cdot5\cdot4\cdot3}{6^4}=\tfrac5{18}, so the EV is 1318−518\tfrac{13}{18}-\tfrac5{18}. (b) Payouts are 1,4,3,8,5,121,4,3,8,5,12 with mean 5.5, so keep only 8 or 12 and reroll otherwise: 8+126+46⋅5.5=7\tfrac{8+12}{6}+\tfrac46\cdot5.5=7.

Adapted from OpenQuant; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

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