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Loaded die parameter maximising a total of seven

Question

A six-sided die is weighted so that faces 11 through 66 come up with probabilities 16\tfrac16, 15−x\tfrac15-x, 110+2x\tfrac1{10}+2x, 15−x\tfrac15-x, 16\tfrac16 and 16\tfrac16 respectively. You roll it twice. Which value of xx makes a total of 77 most likely?

Short answer

x=1/30x=1/30. A total of 77 comes from the unordered pairs {1,6},{2,5},{3,4}\{1,6\},\{2,5\},\{3,4\}, each counted twice for order. This gives P(x)=118+13(15−x)+2(110+2x)(15−x)=−4x2+415x+constP(x)=\tfrac1{18}+\tfrac13\left(\tfrac15-x\right)+2\left(\tfrac1{10}+2x\right)\left(\tfrac15-x\right)=-4x^2+\tfrac{4}{15}x+\text{const}, maximised at x=130x=\tfrac{1}{30}.

Adapted from QuantQuestions.io; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

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