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Last of sixteen uniforms smallest, first largest

Question

Let X1,…,X20X_1,\dots,X_{20} be independent Unif(0,1)\text{Unif}(0,1). Given that X1X_1 is the largest of X1,…,X16X_1,\dots,X_{16} and that X17<X18X_{17}<X_{18}, what is the probability that X16X_{16} is the smallest of X1,…,X16X_1,\dots,X_{16}?

Short answer

115\tfrac1{15}. The event X17<X18X_{17}<X_{18} involves different variables and is independent of how the first 16 are ordered, so drop it. Given X1X_1 is the maximum, the remaining 15 variables are in uniformly random relative order, so X16X_{16} is the minimum with probability 115\tfrac1{15}.

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