Keep an 8-sided roll or switch to a d12
Question
You throw a fair eight-sided die once. After seeing the result you may either stop and be paid that value, or throw a fair twelve-sided die once and be paid whatever it shows instead. Playing optimally, what is your expected payout?
Short answer
. A fresh twelve-sided die is worth on average, so keep the first roll only if it is or . The expected payout is .
Adapted from QuantQuestions.io; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.
See the hint and the full worked solution in the question bank (free account).
Open the worked solutionLessons behind this question
- Expectation, Mean, and Variance
- Counting and Combinatorics
- Conditional Expectation and Variance Revisited
Start with a free lesson: Expectation, Variance and Covariance is part of a free topic. Create a free account, no card needed, to read it in full with worked solutions.
Read it free