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Keep an 8-sided roll or switch to a d12

Question

You throw a fair eight-sided die once. After seeing the result you may either stop and be paid that value, or throw a fair twelve-sided die once and be paid whatever it shows instead. Playing optimally, what is your expected payout?

Short answer

27/427/4. A fresh twelve-sided die is worth 6.56.5 on average, so keep the first roll only if it is 77 or 88. The expected payout is 7+88+68⋅132=274\tfrac{7+8}{8}+\tfrac68\cdot\tfrac{13}{2}=\tfrac{27}{4}.

Adapted from QuantQuestions.io; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

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