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Inner cube or face-down painted cubelet

Question

A plain white 3×3×33\times3\times3 cube is dipped in red paint so its whole exterior is red, then split into its 27 unit cubes, which scatter randomly. You examine one that has come to rest on a face, and none of the five faces you can see is red. What is the probability it is the cube from the very middle?

Short answer

1/21/2. The visible faces are all white only for the central cube (always) or for one of the 6 cubes with a single red face resting red-side down (probability 16\tfrac16 each). Bayes gives 1/271/27+6/27⋅1/6=12\tfrac{1/27}{1/27+6/27\cdot1/6}=\tfrac12.

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