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Implied scale of an exponential from an option price

Question

A student will receive a refund of XX thousand dollars, where XX is exponential with scale parameter β\beta (so E[X]=βE[X]=\beta). Before XX is revealed, he sells a friend, for 0.700.70 thousand dollars, the right (but not the obligation) to buy the refund from him at a price of 0.50.5 thousand dollars. If this contract is fairly priced, what is β\beta, rounded to one decimal place?

Short answer

β≈1.1\beta\approx1.1. The contract is a call with strike 0.50.5, worth E[(X−0.5)+]E[(X-0.5)^+]. By memorylessness this is P(X>0.5)⋅β=βe−0.5/βP(X>0.5)\cdot\beta=\beta e^{-0.5/\beta}. Setting it equal to 0.70.7 and solving numerically gives β≈1.10\beta\approx1.10.

Adapted from QuantQuestions.io; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

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