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How many searchers to hire for a lost drive

Question

Gabe has lost a USB drive holding $500,000\text{\char36}500{,}000 in Bitcoin, and the money is gone for good unless the drive turns up within a week. He can hire searchers at $5,000\text{\char36}5{,}000 each for the week, and each searcher independently has a 90%90\% chance of finding it. How many searchers maximise his expected outcome?

Short answer

22. In units of $5,000\text{\char36}5{,}000, hiring nn searchers yields expected value 100(1−0.1n)−n100\left(1-0.1^n\right)-n, i.e. we minimise 100⋅0.1n+n100\cdot0.1^n+n. This is 1111 for n=1n=1, 33 for n=2n=2, and at least 3.13.1 for n≥3n\ge3.

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