Skip to content

Guessing the rank of one revealed uniform

Question

Three independent Unif(0,1)\text{Unif}(0,1) values are generated and kept hidden. One of the three, chosen at random, is shown to you, and you must declare whether it is the smallest, the middle or the largest of the three. With the best possible guessing rule, what is your probability of being right?

Short answer

1727\tfrac{17}{27}. Seeing value xx, the chances it is the minimum, median or maximum are (1−x)2(1-x)^2, 2x(1−x)2x(1-x) and x2x^2. Pick the largest: minimum for x<13x<\tfrac13, median for 13<x<23\tfrac13<x<\tfrac23, maximum above. Integrating gives 2⋅1981+1381=17272\cdot\tfrac{19}{81}+\tfrac{13}{81}=\tfrac{17}{27}.

Adapted from QuantQuestions.io; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

See the hint and the full worked solution in the question bank (free account).

Open the worked solution

Lessons behind this question

Start with a free lesson: Normal Distribution is part of a free topic. Create a free account, no card needed, to read it in full with worked solutions.

Read it free