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Gambler's ruin with one rebuy

Question

Alice holds $15\text{\char36}15 and Bob holds $10\text{\char36}10. They repeatedly wager $1\text{\char36}1 on a fair coin, one taking heads and the other tails. If Alice runs out of money she may rejoin once with a fresh $15\text{\char36}15, while Bob keeps everything he has won; if she is wiped out a second time she is finished. What is the probability that Bob is the one who ends up broke?

Short answer

34\tfrac34. In a fair game the chance of ruin is your opponent's share of the total. Alice's first ruin has probability 1025=25\tfrac{10}{25}=\tfrac25; after rebuying against Bob's $25\text{\char36}25, her ruin probability is 2540=58\tfrac{25}{40}=\tfrac58. So Alice loses with probability 25⋅58=14\tfrac25\cdot\tfrac58=\tfrac14 and Bob with 34\tfrac34 — the same as if Alice simply started with $30\text{\char36}30.

Adapted from QuantQuestions.io; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

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