Gambler's ruin with one rebuy
Question
Alice holds and Bob holds . They repeatedly wager on a fair coin, one taking heads and the other tails. If Alice runs out of money she may rejoin once with a fresh , while Bob keeps everything he has won; if she is wiped out a second time she is finished. What is the probability that Bob is the one who ends up broke?
Short answer
. In a fair game the chance of ruin is your opponent's share of the total. Alice's first ruin has probability ; after rebuying against Bob's , her ruin probability is . So Alice loses with probability and Bob with — the same as if Alice simply started with .
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Open the worked solutionLessons behind this question
- Conditional Expectation and Variance Revisited
- Conditional Probability, Total Probability, and Bayes' Rule
- Worked Examples — Probability Trees, Monty Hall, and Bayesian Updating
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