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Four random points inside a quarter-circle arc

Question

Choose NN points independently and uniformly on the circumference of a circle. For an angle 0≤x≤π0\le x\le\pi, what is the probability that some arc of angle xx radians contains all of them? Evaluate it for N=4N=4 and x=π/2x=\pi/2.

Short answer

N(x2π)N−1N\left(\tfrac{x}{2\pi}\right)^{N-1}, which is 1/161/16 here. For each point, consider the event that the others all lie within angle xx clockwise from it; when x≤πx\le\pi at most one point can be such a leader, so the probabilities add: N(x/2π)N−1=4⋅(1/4)3N(x/2\pi)^{N-1}=4\cdot(1/4)^3.

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