Forgetful singer restarting a countdown song
Question
A countdown song has verses that mention bottles in that order, and the song ends after the verse for bottle. Each time he sings a verse, a singer independently forgets his place with probability ; when that happens he completes the current verse and then restarts from the -bottle verse. Let be the expected total number of verses he sings. The limit equals for integers . Compute .
Short answer
. Let . Writing first-step equations for the expected verses remaining from each verse and unrolling them gives . Since , , so and .
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Open the worked solutionLessons behind this question
- Expectation, Mean, and Variance
- Conditional Expectation and Variance Revisited
- Indeterminate Forms and L'Hôpital's Rule
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