Extinction chance for a colony that starts with three cells
Question
A bacterial colony evolves in generations: every living cell, independently of the others, either dies without offspring or produces a random positive number of new cells. Starting from a single cell, the colony eventually dies out with probability . What is the probability of eventual extinction for a colony that starts with three cells?
Short answer
. The three founding cells generate independent family trees, each a copy of the one-cell process. The colony dies out only if all three lines do, which has probability .
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Open the worked solutionLessons behind this question
- Conditional Probability, Total Probability, and Bayes' Rule
- Counting and Combinatorics
- Expectation, Mean, and Variance
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