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Extinction chance for a colony that starts with three cells

Question

A bacterial colony evolves in generations: every living cell, independently of the others, either dies without offspring or produces a random positive number of new cells. Starting from a single cell, the colony eventually dies out with probability 13\tfrac13. What is the probability of eventual extinction for a colony that starts with three cells?

Short answer

127\tfrac1{27}. The three founding cells generate independent family trees, each a copy of the one-cell process. The colony dies out only if all three lines do, which has probability (13)3=127(\tfrac13)^3=\tfrac1{27}.

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