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Expected number of car platoons on a long road

Question

Ten cars are spread out along a single-lane road, all heading the same direction at different speeds, with the speeds assigned in a uniformly random order. Overtaking is impossible: a car that catches a slower one ahead slows to match it. After a very long time the cars form KK groups, each moving at its own speed. Find E[K]\mathbb{E}[K].

Short answer

73812520\tfrac{7381}{2520} (about 2.93). A car leads its own group exactly when it is slower than every car ahead of it. For the car with j−1j-1 cars in front, this has probability 1j\tfrac1j, so by linearity E[K]=1+12+⋯+110=H10=73812520\mathbb{E}[K]=1+\tfrac12+\dots+\tfrac1{10}=H_{10}=\tfrac{7381}{2520}.

Adapted from QuantQuestions.io; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

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