Expected number of car platoons on a long road
Question
Ten cars are spread out along a single-lane road, all heading the same direction at different speeds, with the speeds assigned in a uniformly random order. Overtaking is impossible: a car that catches a slower one ahead slows to match it. After a very long time the cars form groups, each moving at its own speed. Find .
Short answer
(about 2.93). A car leads its own group exactly when it is slower than every car ahead of it. For the car with cars in front, this has probability , so by linearity .
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Open the worked solutionLessons behind this question
- Expectation, Mean, and Variance
- Conditional Expectation and Variance Revisited
- Sample Spaces, Events, and the Probability Axioms
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