Expected maximum roll before stopping on a 4
Question
Jim keeps rolling a fair six-sided die and stops the first time a 4 comes up. What is the expected value of the largest number shown over all of his rolls, including the final 4?
Short answer
. The maximum is 4, 5 or 6, and only the relative order of first appearances of 4, 5, 6 matters. A 6 precedes the 4 with probability ; the max is 5 only for the order 5, 4 (with 6 after), probability ; otherwise it is 4, probability . So .
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Open the worked solutionLessons behind this question
- Expectation, Mean, and Variance
- Counting and Combinatorics
- Conditional Expectation and Variance Revisited
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