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Expected bills drawn to post bail with half fakes

Question

To make bail you must hand over $500 using $100 bills drawn one at a time from a bag. Each draw is real with probability 12\tfrac12 and fake with probability 12\tfrac12, independently. Whenever you hand over a fake, everything you have handed over so far is returned and you start from zero. On average, how many bills will you draw?

Short answer

6262. You need 55 consecutive real bills. For a run of kk successes with probability p=12p=\tfrac12 the expected number of trials is p−k−11−p=2k+1−2\tfrac{p^{-k}-1}{1-p}=2^{k+1}-2, which for k=5k=5 is 6262.

Adapted from QuantQuestions.io; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

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