Expected bills drawn to post bail with half fakes
Question
To make bail you must hand over $500 using $100 bills drawn one at a time from a bag. Each draw is real with probability and fake with probability , independently. Whenever you hand over a fake, everything you have handed over so far is returned and you start from zero. On average, how many bills will you draw?
Short answer
. You need consecutive real bills. For a run of successes with probability the expected number of trials is , which for is .
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Open the worked solutionLessons behind this question
- Conditional Expectation and Variance Revisited
- Conditional Probability, Total Probability, and Bayes' Rule
- Worked Examples — Probability Trees, Monty Hall, and Bayesian Updating
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