Draws with replacement until four jacks in a row
Question
Bobby repeatedly draws a card from a standard 52-card deck, putting it back each time. What is the expected number of draws until he has drawn jacks on four consecutive draws?
Short answer
. Each draw is a jack with probability , and any non-jack resets the streak. For a run of successes the expected waiting time is , so the answer is .
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Open the worked solutionLessons behind this question
- Conditional Expectation and Variance Revisited
- Conditional Probability, Total Probability, and Bayes' Rule
- Worked Examples — Probability Trees, Monty Hall, and Bayesian Updating
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