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Draws with replacement until four jacks in a row

Question

Bobby repeatedly draws a card from a standard 52-card deck, putting it back each time. What is the expected number of draws until he has drawn jacks on four consecutive draws?

Short answer

30,94030{,}940. Each draw is a jack with probability p=113p=\tfrac1{13}, and any non-jack resets the streak. For a run of kk successes the expected waiting time is ∑i=1kp−i\sum_{i=1}^{k}p^{-i}, so the answer is 13+132+133+134=30,94013+13^2+13^3+13^4=30{,}940.

Adapted from QuantQuestions.io; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

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