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Doubling-or-extinction population lifetime

Question

A population of 10,00010{,}000 animals evolves year by year: each year, independently, it doubles with probability 0.90.9 or is wiped out with probability 0.10.1. What is the expected number of years until it goes extinct?

Short answer

1010. The population size is irrelevant; extinction happens in each year independently with probability 0.10.1, so the waiting time is geometric with mean 1/0.1=101/0.1=10. Equivalently x=0.1⋅1+0.9(1+x)x=0.1\cdot1+0.9(1+x) gives x=10x=10.

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