Doubling-or-extinction population lifetime
Question
A population of animals evolves year by year: each year, independently, it doubles with probability or is wiped out with probability . What is the expected number of years until it goes extinct?
Short answer
. The population size is irrelevant; extinction happens in each year independently with probability , so the waiting time is geometric with mean . Equivalently gives .
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- Random Variables and Probability Mass Functions
- Expectation, Mean, and Variance
- Conditional Expectation and Variance Revisited
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