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Double-headed coin after ten straight heads

Question

A bag holds 100100 coins: 9999 are ordinary fair coins and one has a head on each side. You pull out a coin uniformly at random and toss it 1010 times, and every toss comes up heads. Given this, what is the probability that the coin in your hand is the double-headed one?

Short answer

1024/11231024/1123. By Bayes' rule, the double-headed coin produces ten heads with certainty while a fair coin does so with chance 2−102^{-10}. The posterior is 11001100+99100⋅2−10=10241024+99\dfrac{\tfrac{1}{100}}{\tfrac{1}{100}+\tfrac{99}{100}\cdot 2^{-10}}=\dfrac{1024}{1024+99}.

Adapted from QuantQuestions.io; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

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