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Conditional mean of one normal given the sum

Question

Let X2∼N(0,16)X_2\sim N(0,16) and, independently of it, X1∼N(0,9)X_1\sim N(0,9). You observe that their sum equals 55. What is the conditional expectation of X1X_1?

Short answer

9/59/5. For independent zero-mean normals, the sum is split in proportion to the variances: E[X1∣S=s]=Var⁡X1Var⁡S s=925⋅5=95\mathbb{E}[X_1\mid S=s]=\tfrac{\operatorname{Var}X_1}{\operatorname{Var}S}\,s=\tfrac{9}{25}\cdot5=\tfrac95.

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