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Card following an ace that first appears at position 27

Question

A standard deck is shuffled and dealt face up from the top. It turns out that the first ace is the 2727th card. Given this, what is the probability that the 2828th card is the two of hearts?

Short answer

11600\tfrac{11}{600}. Given the condition, the first 26 cards are a random set of 26 of the 48 non-aces, so the two of hearts is among the remaining cards with probability 2248\tfrac{22}{48}. Those 25 remaining cards are in random order, so it sits in position 28 with probability 125\tfrac1{25}: 2248⋅125=11600\tfrac{22}{48}\cdot\tfrac1{25}=\tfrac{11}{600}.

Adapted from QuantQuestions.io; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

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