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Biased coin maximising one run of exactly two heads

Question

You may choose the heads probability pp of a coin, which is then tossed 44 times. You want to maximise the probability that the sequence contains a block of exactly two heads in a row, with no run of three or more heads. So HHTHHHTH and HHTTHHTT qualify, while HHHTHHHT and HHHHHHHH do not. The optimal pp has the form a−bc\dfrac{a-\sqrt b}{c} with integers a,b,ca,b,c and cc as small as possible. Find a+b+ca+b+c.

Short answer

88. The qualifying patterns are HHT∗HHT\ast, THHTTHHT and ∗THH\ast THH, which together have probability p2(1−p)(3−p)=3p2−4p3+p4p^2(1-p)(3-p)=3p^2-4p^3+p^4. Its derivative 2p(2p2−6p+3)2p(2p^2-6p+3) vanishes inside (0,1)(0,1) at p=3−32≈0.634p=\tfrac{3-\sqrt3}{2}\approx0.634, so a+b+c=3+3+2=8a+b+c=3+3+2=8.

Adapted from QuantQuestions.io; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

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