Best threshold for a d20 roll-or-cash game
Question
You have moves and a fair -sided die whose top face currently shows . Each move is either a roll, which re-randomises the top face, or a take, which pays you the number currently on top in dollars without ending the game; takes do not require a roll in between (so taking times immediately guarantees $100). You commit in advance to this plan: roll until the top face is at least for the first time, then take on every remaining move. Choosing optimally, what is the expected payout?
Short answer
dollars. With threshold the face you lock in averages and reaching it takes on average rolls, leaving about takes. The product is maximised at : .
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Open the worked solutionLessons behind this question
- Expectation, Mean, and Variance
- Counting and Combinatorics
- Conditional Expectation and Variance Revisited
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