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Best queue position on a glass tile bridge

Question

Ten players stand in a fixed order to cross a bridge of 1010 steps. Each step consists of a left and a right panel, exactly one of which holds weight; which one is a fair coin flip, independent across steps, and the panels look identical. The player at the front chooses a panel at each step, continuing until they either fall through (and are out) or reach the end. Whenever the leader falls, the next player in line takes over from that point, already knowing every panel revealed so far. The first player to reach the far side wins. If pip_i is the probability that the iith player in line wins, what is max⁡ipi\max_i p_i?

Short answer

63256\tfrac{63}{256}. Each step is guessed blind exactly once, by whoever first reaches it, and that guess fails with probability 12\tfrac12. So the total number of eliminations is Bin(10,12)\text{Bin}(10,\tfrac12), and player ii wins exactly when there are i−1i-1 eliminations: pi=(10i−1)/210p_i=\binom{10}{i-1}/2^{10}. The maximum is at i=6i=6: 2521024=63256\tfrac{252}{1024}=\tfrac{63}{256}.

Adapted from QuantQuestions.io; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

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