Best place in a queue for a birthday-match prize
Question
A shop announces a prize for the first customer in the queue whose birthday matches that of somebody ahead of them in the queue. Birthdays are independent and uniform over days, and you know nobody's birthday. Which position in the queue maximises your chance of winning?
Short answer
th. At position you win if the people ahead all have distinct birthdays and yours matches one of them: . Comparing with 1 shows the maximum is at (about 3.23%).
Adapted from QuantQuestions.io; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.
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Open the worked solutionLessons behind this question
- Counting and Combinatorics
- Conditional Probability, Total Probability, and Bayes' Rule
- Worked Examples — Probability Trees, Monty Hall, and Bayesian Updating
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