Best guess of 100 tosses after one yes-no query
Question
A friend tosses a fair coin times and writes down the sequence. You may ask one question that the friend answers truthfully with yes or no, and then you must name the whole sequence. Your best achievable probability of being right has the form with integers and as large as possible. Find .
Short answer
. Any yes/no question splits the sequences into a set and its complement; you then guess within the indicated part, succeeding with probability , whatever the question. So , .
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Open the worked solutionLessons behind this question
- Sample Spaces, Events, and the Probability Axioms
- Conditional Probability, Total Probability, and Bayes' Rule
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