Alternating tosses: first to complete heads then tails
Question
Two players, A then B, take turns tossing one shared fair coin, so the tosses form a single sequence. The game ends the first time a tail immediately follows a head in that sequence, and the player who tossed that tail wins. What is the probability that A wins?
Short answer
. Track whose turn it is and whether the last toss was a head. If A is about to toss after a head, A wins with probability where , so . From the start, , which gives .
Adapted from Zhou, A Practical Guide to Quantitative Finance Interviews, sec. 4.3 Conditional Probability and Bayes' Formula, 'Coin toss game (HT first)', p.79; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.
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Open the worked solutionLessons behind this question
- Conditional Probability, Total Probability, and Bayes' Rule
- Worked Examples — Probability Trees, Monty Hall, and Bayesian Updating
- Sample Spaces, Events, and the Probability Axioms
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