Why pricing as if investors were risk neutral works
Question
Explain why valuing derivatives with risk-neutral expectations gives the correct price.
Short answer
Because the option can be hedged perfectly, its price cannot depend on investors' risk preferences, so we may assume any preferences, including risk neutrality. Delta hedging removes the stock's drift from the pricing equation; the resulting value is therefore the same as in a world where every asset grows at the risk-free rate, in which price equals the discounted expected payoff. The risk-neutral probabilities are a calculation device, not real-world forecasts.
Adapted from Wilmott, Frequently Asked Questions in Quantitative Finance, FAQ 23, p.103; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.
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Open the worked solutionLessons behind this question
- Market Model and Risk-Neutral Valuation
- Option Mechanics: Calls, Puts, Moneyness, Intrinsic Value, and Exchange vs. OTC Markets
- Option Trading Strategies: Spreads, Combinations, and Payoff Engineering
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