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What value at risk measures and where it falls short

Question

Explain what value at risk (VaR) is as a measure of portfolio risk, and discuss its main weaknesses.

Short answer

VaR is a loss threshold: the amount a portfolio will not lose more than with confidence α\alpha over a set horizon (a quantile of the loss distribution). Its drawbacks: it says nothing about how bad losses are beyond the threshold, it is not subadditive so diversification can appear to raise risk, it depends heavily on distributional and correlation assumptions (often normal and stable), and it can be gamed by positions with rare large losses. Expected shortfall addresses several of these.

Adapted from Zhou, A Practical Guide to Quantitative Finance Interviews, sec. 6.4 Other Finance Questions, 'Value at risk', p.163; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

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