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Touch-anytime versus at-expiry digital at 30

Question

Interest rates are zero and a stock trades at 2020. Contract A pays 11 if the stock goes above 3030 at any time during the next year; contract B pays 11 only if the stock is above 3030 at the end of the year. Compare their values.

Short answer

A is worth more: a little over twice B. Any path finishing above 3030 must have crossed it, so A dominates B. By the reflection principle, a path that has reached 3030 is about equally likely to end above or below it; exactly, A =N(d2)+SHN(d1)=N(d_2)+\tfrac{S}{H}N(d_1) with H=30H=30 while B =N(d2)=N(d_2), and since a driftless lognormal stock is slightly more likely to end below 3030 after touching it, A exceeds 2B2B.

Adapted from Joshi, Denson & Downes, Quant Job Interview Questions and Answers, Q2.15, p.17; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

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