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Simulation-based valuation in a nutshell

Question

Explain what Monte Carlo simulation is in the context of quantitative finance.

Short answer

It estimates an expectation by averaging over many randomly simulated scenarios. For pricing, you simulate the underlying's paths under the risk-neutral measure, compute the payoff on each, average and discount. It copes easily with many underlyings and path-dependent payoffs, but its error shrinks only like 1/n1/\sqrt n, so variance reduction and quasi-random numbers are used; it is also central to risk measurement such as VaR.

Adapted from Wilmott, Frequently Asked Questions in Quantitative Finance, FAQ 29, p.132; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

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