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Four meanings of volatility

Question

Distinguish actual, historical, implied and forward volatility.

Short answer

Actual volatility is the true (unobservable) instantaneous randomness of the asset; historical is a statistical estimate from past returns; implied is the value that makes a model price equal the market price; forward is the volatility implied for a future period. Forward volatility between T1T_1 and T2T_2 follows from implied variances: σf2=σ22T2−σ12T1T2−T1\sigma_f^2=\frac{\sigma_2^2T_2-\sigma_1^2T_1}{T_2-T_1}. They generally differ, and trading their differences is volatility trading.

Adapted from Wilmott, Frequently Asked Questions in Quantitative Finance, FAQ 33, p.151; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

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