Four meanings of volatility
Question
Distinguish actual, historical, implied and forward volatility.
Short answer
Actual volatility is the true (unobservable) instantaneous randomness of the asset; historical is a statistical estimate from past returns; implied is the value that makes a model price equal the market price; forward is the volatility implied for a future period. Forward volatility between and follows from implied variances: . They generally differ, and trading their differences is volatility trading.
Adapted from Wilmott, Frequently Asked Questions in Quantitative Finance, FAQ 33, p.151; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.
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