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Expected payoff of an at-the-money call with normal prices

Question

Suppose the stock price at expiry is normally distributed with mean equal to today's price S0S_0 and standard deviation σ\sigma. What is the expected payoff of a call struck at S0S_0?

Short answer

σ/2π≈0.4 σ\sigma/\sqrt{2\pi}\approx0.4\,\sigma. The payoff is σZ+\sigma Z^+ with ZZ standard normal, and E[Z+]=∫0∞z φ(z) dz=12π\mathbb E[Z^+]=\int_0^\infty z\,\varphi(z)\,dz=\tfrac{1}{\sqrt{2\pi}}.

Adapted from Joshi, Denson & Downes, Quant Job Interview Questions and Answers, Q2.20, p.18; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

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